🔬 Hypothesis Generation

Bilimsel hipotez oluşturma ve test metodolojisi rehberi.

📋 Hipotez Yapısı

Format

IF [independent variable/action]
THEN [dependent variable/outcome]
BECAUSE [mechanism/reasoning]

Örnek

IF we reduce checkout steps from 5 to 3
THEN conversion rate will increase by 15%
BECAUSE fewer steps reduce friction and drop-off

🎯 Hipotez Kriterleri

🔧 Hipotez Türleri

A/B Test Hipotezi

**Hypothesis:** Changing CTA button from blue to green 
will increase click rate by 10%

**Metric:** CTA Click Rate
**Baseline:** 2.5%
**Target:** 2.75%
**Sample Size:** 10,000 users
**Duration:** 2 weeks

Product Hipotezi

**Problem:** Users abandon during onboarding
**Hypothesis:** Adding progress indicator will reduce 
abandonment by 20%
**Success Metric:** Onboarding completion rate

📊 Experiment Design

Test Plan

## Experiment: [Name]

### Hypothesis
[IF-THEN-BECAUSE statement]

### Variables
- Independent: [What we change]
- Dependent: [What we measure]
- Control: [What stays same]

### Metrics
- Primary: [Main KPI]
- Secondary: [Supporting metrics]
- Guardrail: [Safety metrics]

### Design
- Type: A/B / Multivariate
- Split: 50/50
- Duration: [X] weeks

### Analysis Plan
- Statistical test: [t-test, chi-square, etc.]
- Confidence level: 95%
- MDE: [Minimum detectable effect]

📝 Prioritization (ICE)

ICE Score = (Impact + Confidence + Ease) / 3

Hypothesis Generation v1.1 – Enhanced

🔄 Workflow

Kaynak: Stanford d.school Design Thinking

Aşama 1: Observation

• Data: Analitik verisi veya kullanıcı görüşmesinden bir “Insight” yakala.
• Problem: Gözlemi net bir problem cümlesine dönüştür.

Aşama 2: Construction

• Formula: IF [action] THEN [outcome] BECAUSE [reason] şablonunu kullan.
• Variables: Bağımsız (değişen) ve bağımlı (ölçülen) değişkenleri netleştir.

Aşama 3: Prioritization

• ICE Score: Impact (Etki), Confidence (Güven), Ease (Kolaylık) 1-10 puanla.
• Risk: Test başarısız olursa ne kaybederiz?

Kontrol Noktaları