Development Estimation Skill

Systematic estimation with confidence intervals and risk assessment.

Quick Start

# Time estimate with breakdown
/sc:estimate "auth system" --type time --unit days --breakdown

# Complexity assessment
/sc:estimate "microservices migration" --type complexity

# Effort analysis
/sc:estimate "performance optimization" --type effort --unit hours

Behavioral Flow

1. Analyze – Examine scope, complexity, and dependencies
2. Calculate – Apply estimation methodology with benchmarks
3. Validate – Cross-reference with domain expertise
4. Present – Provide breakdown with confidence intervals
5. Track – Document for accuracy improvement

Flags

Personas Activated

• architect – Design complexity assessment
• performance – Optimization effort analysis
• project-manager – Timeline and resource planning

MCP Integration

• PAL MCP – Multi-perspective estimate validation

Evidence Requirements

This skill does NOT require hard evidence. Deliverables are:

• Estimates with confidence intervals
• Risk factor identification
• Breakdown documentation

Estimation Types

Time (--type time)

• Calendar duration estimates
• Milestone planning
• Deadline assessment

Effort (--type effort)

• Person-hours/days required
• Resource allocation guidance
• Team capacity planning

Complexity (--type complexity)

• Technical complexity scoring
• Risk factor identification
• Dependency mapping

Confidence Levels

Estimates include confidence intervals:

• High (85-95%) – Well-understood scope
• Medium (70-84%) – Some unknowns
• Low (50-69%) – Significant uncertainty

Examples

Feature Estimation

/sc:estimate "user authentication" --type time --unit days --breakdown
# Breakdown: DB design (2d) + API (3d) + UI (2d) + Tests (1d)
# Total: 8 days @ 85% confidence

Complexity Assessment

/sc:estimate "monolith to microservices" --type complexity --breakdown
# Architecture complexity with risk factors
# Dependency mapping and migration phases

Effort Analysis

/sc:estimate "API performance optimization" --type effort --unit hours
# Profiling (4h) + Analysis (6h) + Implementation (16h) + Testing (8h)
# Total: 34 hours @ 75% confidence

Tool Coordination

• Read/Grep/Glob – Codebase complexity analysis
• TodoWrite – Estimation breakdown tracking
• Task – Multi-domain estimation delegation
• Bash – Dependency and project analysis