Startup Ideation

Scope

Covers

• Turning vague “startup ideas” into structured opportunity theses
• Expanding your information diet to find off-the-beaten-path opportunities
• Running a Why Now analysis based on technology + behavior + distribution shifts
• Identifying tarpits (ideas that look good but are structurally hard) and pruning early
• Scoring ideas and producing a top-idea 1‑pager + 2‑week validation plan

When to use

• “Help me come up with startup ideas in/around .”
• “We have 5 ideas — help us pick one and explain why.”
• “What’s a good Why Now for this idea?”
• “Pressure to do AI — where are real new opportunities?”
• “How do we avoid idea tarpits and pick something differentiated?”

When NOT to use

• You already chose an idea and need a delivery-ready PRD (use writing-prds)
• You need to define the problem space for a specific user pain (use problem-definition)
• You need to execute research (recruit, interview, synthesize) rather than frame it (use conducting-user-interviews)
• You need market sizing / pricing / fundraising pitch materials (adjacent work, not covered here)

Inputs

Minimum required

• Founder/team context + constraints (time, budget, skills, regulatory constraints)
• The decision to make + timeline (e.g., “pick 1 idea to validate in the next 2 weeks”)
• Target customer type (B2B/B2C; any preferred industries or segments)
• Any starting ideas (even rough) + what prompted them

Missing-info strategy

• Ask up to 5 questions from references/INTAKE.md.
• If still missing, proceed with explicit assumptions and list Open questions that could change the recommendation.

Outputs (deliverables)

Produce a Startup Ideation Pack in Markdown (in-chat; or as files if the user requests):

1. Context snapshot (goal, constraints, decision, timeline)
2. Unfair advantage + off-the-beaten-path signals (what you know/see that others might not)
3. Shift scan + Why Now candidates (tech/behavior/distribution/regulatory shifts)
4. Opportunity theses table (15–30 ideas, each structured + testable)
5. Tarpit & differentiation check (prune to a shortlist)
6. Idea scorecard (score top 3–5 with evidence)
7. Top idea brief (1‑pager) (clear wedge + Why Now + ICP + risks)
8. 2‑week validation plan (fastest tests for the highest-risk assumptions)
9. Risks / Open questions / Next steps (always included)

Templates: references/TEMPLATES.md
Expanded guidance: references/WORKFLOW.md

Workflow (8 steps)

1) Intake + decision framing

• Inputs: User context; references/INTAKE.md.
• Actions: Clarify decision, time horizon, and constraints. Define success as “pick 1 idea to validate next” (or similar).
• Outputs: Context snapshot.
• Checks: You can restate the decision in one sentence (“We are deciding whether to… by ”).

2) Inventory unfair advantage + off-the-beaten-path signals

• Inputs: Founder/team background; past work; lived experience; access.
• Actions: List 5–15 unique signals: personal pain, workflows you’ve seen, niche communities, privileged distribution, proprietary data access, or operator insight.
• Outputs: Unfair advantage + signals list.
• Checks: Each signal is specific (who/where/when) and could plausibly lead to a differentiated idea.

3) Run a shift scan (“Why now?” raw material)

• Inputs: Domain + constraints; current trends the user cares about.
• Actions: Generate 10–20 “shifts” across: technology capability, buyer behavior, regulation, distribution, and cost curves. For each, write: “This enables X that was hard before.”
• Outputs: Shift scan + Why Now candidates.
• Checks: At least 5 shifts are concrete and falsifiable (not vague hype).

4) Generate opportunity theses (structured ideas)

• Inputs: Signals + shifts.
• Actions: Produce 15–30 opportunity theses using the template: Customer → Job → Pain → Why now → Wedge → First test.
• Outputs: Opportunity theses table.
• Checks: Every idea includes a Why Now statement and a proposed first validation test.

5) Tarpit & differentiation check (prune)

• Inputs: Opportunity theses table.
• Actions: Flag tarpits and thinly differentiated ideas. Apply “off-the-beaten-path” pressure: if an idea is widely discussed, require a strong wedge or discard.
• Outputs: Pruned list + notes on tarpits/differentiation.
• Checks: The remaining shortlist has at least one concrete advantage (distribution, insight, data, speed, regulatory, workflow depth).

6) Score + shortlist top 3–5

• Inputs: Pruned list; references/RUBRIC.md.
• Actions: Score each shortlisted idea with evidence and assumptions. Highlight the 1–2 criteria that dominate the outcome (sensitivity).
• Outputs: Idea scorecard + top 3–5 recommendation.
• Checks: Scores cite specific evidence or clearly labeled assumptions (no hand-wavy numbers).

7) Draft the top idea 1‑pager + 2‑week validation plan

• Inputs: Top idea; references/TEMPLATES.md.
• Actions: Write a crisp 1‑pager (ICP, problem, Why Now, wedge, GTM motion hypothesis). Then design the fastest validation plan focused on the riskiest assumptions.
• Outputs: Top idea brief + validation plan.
• Checks: The plan includes: who to talk to, what to build (if anything), success criteria, and a stop/pivot rule.

8) Quality gate + finalize pack

• Inputs: Full draft pack.
• Actions: Run references/CHECKLISTS.md and score with references/RUBRIC.md. Add Risks / Open questions / Next steps.
• Outputs: Final Startup Ideation Pack.
• Checks: A stakeholder can review async and decide “validate / park / discard” without a meeting.

Quality gate (required)

• Use references/CHECKLISTS.md and references/RUBRIC.md.
• Always include: Risks, Open questions, Next steps.

Examples

Example 1 (B2B): “We’re ex‑operators in logistics. Generate and score startup ideas; pick 1 to validate in 2 weeks.”
Expected: opportunity theses rooted in real workflows + a shortlist + a top idea 1‑pager with a concrete validation plan.

Example 2 (AI shift): “We think new LLM capabilities enable something new in customer support; help us find a differentiated idea and Why Now.”
Expected: shift scan → structured theses → tarpit check → top idea brief with a tight wedge and clear risks.

Boundary example: “Give me 100 startup ideas with no context.”
Response: ask intake questions first; if the user won’t provide any, produce a small set of generic theses with explicit assumptions and advise on how to ground them in real signals.