Discover Assumptions and Experiments

Overview

Surface the riskiest assumptions in an Opportunity Solution Tree and design the smallest tests that can prove or disprove them quickly.

Position in Workflow

Step 4 of product strategy workflow:

1. /discover-outcomes – Define outcomes
2. /discover-opportunities – Identify opportunities
3. /ideate-solutions – Explore solution concepts
4. /discover-assumptions – Validate with experiments (THIS)

Inputs (ask if missing, max 5)

• Target node(s): outcome, opportunity, or solution
• Target users/market
• Existing evidence (data, research, learnings)
• Constraints (time, budget, ethics, legal)
• Decision deadline

Assumption Types

• Desirability: Users want or value it
• Usability: Users can use it successfully
• Feasibility: We can build/deliver it
• Viability: It supports the business model
• Risk/Compliance/Ethics: It is safe and allowed
• Strategic: It aligns with goals and positioning

Workflow

1. List assumptions per node
   • Write assumptions as testable statements.
2. Score risk
   • Impact (low/medium/high) x uncertainty (low/medium/high).
   • Note current evidence strength (none/weak/moderate/strong).
3. Prioritize
   • Select top 3-5 riskiest assumptions.
4. Design experiments
   • Propose 2+ tests per assumption, fastest/cheapest first.
   • Define hypothesis, method, sample, success metric, and decision threshold.
5. Sequence tests
   • Start with tests that can invalidate assumptions quickly.

Experiment Patterns (examples)

• Customer interviews, observation, diary studies
• Survey with behavioral intent + follow-up validation
• Smoke test or landing page
• Fake-door or click-through test
• Concierge or Wizard-of-Oz pilot
• Prototype usability test
• A/B test or pricing experiment
• Limited rollout with manual operations

Output Format

## Assumption Discovery

### Context Summary
[1-3 sentences]

### Assumptions (by node)
- Node: [Outcome/Opportunity/Solution]
  - Assumption: ... (type: desirability)
  - Evidence: ... (strength: weak)
  - Risk: impact high x uncertainty high

### Top Risks
1) Assumption: ...
   - Why risky: ...

### Experiments
1) Assumption: ...
   - Hypothesis: ...
   - Method: ...
   - Sample: ...
   - Success metric: ...
   - Decision threshold: ...
   - Time/cost: ...

### Sequenced Plan
1) ...
2) ...

### Open Questions
- ...

### Next Step
If assumptions are validated, proceed to product planning.

Quick Reference

• Turn beliefs into testable statements.
• Prefer tests that can disprove the assumption fast.
• Document decision thresholds before running tests.

Common Mistakes

• Treating opinions as evidence
• Testing solutions before validating the underlying assumption
• Running expensive tests without cheap falsification attempts
• Vague hypotheses or missing thresholds